“Anthropic Reasoning in the Great Filter: We apply three popular principles for reasoning about indexical information to the Great Filter model of the development of life. The aim is to discover the effect of each principle on the expected level of extinction risk humanity faces, given the Great Filter model. The principles are contentious; at most one of them is correct. We find that the principles investigated imply that human extinction is a greater risk than otherwise thought. One of the principles, the Self Sampling Assumption, implies different results with some parameters. The other two principles reliably imply that the risk of extinction has been underestimated. Other details of the results differ between principles. We explore these, discuss the implications of the findings for specific causes of extinction, and examine the plausibility of the principles. We conclude that despite continuing uncertainty in the correct method of indexical reasoning, we must increase our expectations of human extinction, as long as we are confident that one of the primary reasoning principles under contention is correct.” http://www.academia.edu/475444/Anthropic_Reasoning_in_the_Great_Filter

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